Control Risks (www.ControlRisks.com), the global specialist risk consultancy, today released the 10th edition of its flagship Africa Risk-Reward Index (ARRI), developed in partnership with Oxford Economics Africa. The 2025 edition of the ARRI marks almost a decade of tracking the economies of 24 African markets, ensuring the political, security and economic insights remain truly data-driven.
ARRI highlights the diversity of African markets. While aggregate risk across the continent has remained broadly flat since 2017, and reward levels have largely rebounded, the real story is one of divergence. Reform-minded economies are pulling ahead, while several anchor markets face execution challenges.
“Africa will reward organisations that build resilient, regionally integrated models – not those relying on single-buyer, single-market strategies” explains Patricia Rodrigues, Associate Director, Control Risks.
The 2025 ARRI further shows that companies succeeding on the continent are those embracing localised strategies: building for regional demand, investing in local value chains and structuring for domestic volatility. Reform-led markets offer early-mover advantages, while anchor economies require conditional investment tied to tangible reforms. Across all markets, regional integration and local capital are reshaping how growth is scaled and financed.
ARRI identified the following emerging market trends set to shape the performance of companies in 2025 and beyond:
• Industrial policy is reshaping value chains. From Guinea to Mozambique, countries are moving from raw material exports to regional specialisation
• Corridor economics are gaining traction. Projects like the Lobito Corridor are catalysing cross-border industrial initiatives and inspiring similar ventures
• Local capital is waking up. Panda and samurai bonds, deeper pension pools and rising domestic debt shares are transforming the funding landscape.
• Strategic repositioning is underway. Africa is no longer waiting for external financing but is industrialising on its own terms.
“The aid era is ending; the operating era is here” added Rodrigues.
Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Control Risks Group Holdings Ltd.
Marketing contacts:
Agnes Jumah
EMEA Marketing Lead
Control Risks
Agnes.Jumah@controlrisks.com
Kayley Betchoo
Senior Marketing Executive: Africa
Control Risks
Kayley.Betchoo@controlrisks.com
Media spokespeople:
Patricia Rodrigues
Director
Geopolitical Risk
Kenya and East Africa
Patricia.Rodrigues@controlrisks.com
Vincent Rouget
Principal
Geopolitical Risk
Sub-Saharan Africa
Vincent.Rouget@controlrisks.com
Beverly Ochieng
Senior Analyst
Geopolitical Risk
Senegal and West Africa
Beverly.Ochieng@controlrisks.com
Oludamilare Adesola
Associate Director
Geopolitical Risk
Nigeria and West Africa
Oludamilare.Adesola@controlrisks.com
About The Africa Risk-Reward Index:
ARRI tracks 24 African countries using 11 political, security and economic indicators to produce annual risk and reward scores with ten-year trendlines. Developed by Control Risks and Oxford Economics Africa, the Index offers a comparative snapshot of market opportunities and risks across the continent.
About Control Risks:
Control Risks is a global security and strategic intelligence firm. Across the physical and digital worlds, we deliver comprehensive security advice and solutions along with strategic intelligence that enable clients to make risk-based decisions and realise opportunities around the world.
About Oxford Economics Africa:
Oxford Economics Africa’s coverage provides comprehensive analysis of immediate and long-term economic prospects in addition to forecasts and commentary by country, sector and city that will benefit organisations monitoring risks or opportunities for their operations or investments in the continent. With headquarters in South Africa Oxford Economics Africa has a strong reputation for local knowledge, independence and quality. The firm employs a highly qualified team of economists, econometricians, quantitative analysts, political analysts and editors.
