A third of Europe’s wind capacity will face critical end-of-life decision by 2030 – Shoreline report

• New report from Shoreline Wind looks at the imminent challenges and opportunities Europe’s wind sector faces for repowering, lifetime extension or decommissioning.

• Triple the output of a legacy wind farm, use 25% fewer turbines – the economics of repowering is very attractive for wind operators.

Europe’s wind farms will soon face a wave of critical end-of-life decisions, with almost 30% (86 GW) of the region’s installed wind capacity approaching 20 years of operation by 2030, according to a new report from Shoreline Wind, the premier provider of digital planning and simulation solutions for the wind industry.

The report, Triple Jump: Wind’s Repowering Opportunities, explores the difficult decision facing owners whether to repower projects with modern turbines, extend the lifetime of ageing assets expecting declining returns, or fully decommission sites.

The report canvases wind industry leaders from across Europe and argues that repowering could become one of the fastest ways to increase Europe’s renewable electricity output, if the many challenges, including project finance, permitting, and extending land lease agreements can be overcome.

“Everyone’s always asking: what is better? Is that life extension or is that repowering? … People may just want to repower because the opportunity to get more energy from that capex is more valuable. They could have extended but, economically, if they make a bigger investment now then they’ll make more money. That’s what they’re trying to get to the bottom of,” said Pierre-Etienne Claveranne, Managing Director at Green Giraffe, who contributed to the report.

This wave of ageing assets means developers and investors must decide whether to repower projects with modern turbines, extend the operational life of existing assets, or fully decommission sites. Each pathway brings its own financial, regulatory and technical challenges.

David Guzman Vazquez, Senior Consultant for Wind, Solar and Storage at OWC, a contributor to the report, said: “We’re seeing people, even as early as the development stage, saying ‘what can we do now to give us the best chance of lifetime extension when we reach the end of that 20-year lifetime?’ At OWC, we are quite heavily involved in supporting clients in their O&M strategy, OPEX maintenance reserves, and what can be done at an early stage as well as later in life in terms of inspections and additional repairs to give turbines the greatest opportunity of lifetime extension.”

While repowering offers significant opportunities, offshore businesses are already establishing best practices for extension and decommissioning. Insights from industry participants including Eneco illustrate how operators are already evaluating their options for early offshore projects such as Princess Amalia Wind Farm, where key permits and lease agreements are due to expire later this decade.

“Especially offshore, you see a lot of corrosion on the secondary steel, so you have to do calculations to see if the fatigue load is still within the limits of the design loads. Together with a certification company, we can see how much remaining useful life is left on the construction, bolted connections and components,” said Dominique van den Langenberg, Senior Project Manager at Eneco.

The report examines how wind farm owners are approaching end-of-life strategies across both onshore and offshore projects. It highlights several factors shaping these decisions, including regulatory frameworks for repowering, the condition and performance of existing assets, supply chain constraints and the availability of vessels and specialist equipment for offshore work.

The report also highlights the growing role of digital technology in supporting end-of-life decision-making. Advanced planning and simulation tools can help project owners model different scenarios — simulating the operation output of a repowered site with new turbines, modelling the decline in operational output for extended sites as well as more demanding O&M requirements, and finally managing the complete decommissioning, including the recycling of blades and other components according to local regulations.

“Digital systems can help developers simulate energy output from repowered projects, optimise construction and logistics planning, and support efficient operations and maintenance strategies for ageing assets”, said Wojtek Nodzynski, Enterprise Sales Director at Shoreline Wind.

“With a large share of Europe’s wind fleet approaching 20 years of operation, developers need clear insights to make informed decisions. Digital planning tools can play a crucial role in helping the industry maximise value from existing sites while minimising delays and operational risk”, added Wojtek.

As Europe seeks to expand renewable power generation to meet long-term climate goals, the choices made about ageing wind farms could play a significant role in shaping the next phase of the region’s energy transition.

Shoreline Wind’s white paper is available for download from their website: https://shorelinewind.com/downloads/wind-repowering-opportunities-report