Energy Security Boosts Fossil Fuels Demand Amid Growth Opportunities in Renewables

By ogrepublic Last updated Nov 29, 2025

By Ndubuisi Micheal Obineme

The global energy landscape is evolving as rising energy demand pushes countries to prioritize both energy security and affordability in this era of energy transition. A recent industry report shows that renewable energy and fossil fuels contribute to meeting the world’s energy demand.

Notably, renewable energy is expanding globally, with total wind and solar capacity additions for 2024–2025 set to exceed 700 gigawatts (GW). Renewables accounted for the largest share of the world’s electricity mix in the first half of 2025, overtaking coal. This milestone was driven by rapid expansion in solar and wind energy, which grew faster than overall electricity demand.

According to a report published by Ember, it revealed that renewables supplied 34.3% of global electricity during this period, with many countries setting new milestones. The report also highlighted that renewable generation expanded by 363 TWh, a 7.7% rise that brought total output to 5,072 TWh. In contrast, coal generation declined by 31 TWh, decreasing to 4,896 TWh.

The Ember report highlighted that global solar generation grew by a record 306 TWh — a 31% increase. China led the expansion, contributing 55% of the total increase in solar output. The United States followed with 14%, the European Union with 12%, India with 5.6%, and Brazil with 3.2%. All other countries combined made up the remaining 9% of solar energy growth. This surge pushed solar’s share of worldwide electricity production from 6.9% to 8.8%.

In the report, Ember also highlighted that renewable generation expanded by 363 TWh, a 7.7% rise that brought total output to 5,072 TWh. In contrast, coal generation declined by 31 TWh, dropping to 4,896 TWh. This shift boosted renewables’ share of the global electricity mix from 32.7% to 34.3%. Coal’s share fell from 34.2% to 33.1%, marking a significant turning point in the global energy transition.

But coal demand also rose in certain regions, with China, India, and the United States adding it for energy security.

Furthermore, the Ember report noted that four countries are generating more than a quarter of their electricity from solar energy, and at least 29 countries have exceeded the 10% mark, up from 22 countries in 2024 and only 11 countries in H1 2021.

As renewables are rising globally, some regions saw increased fossil fuel use to meet energy demand, particularly in the United States and Europe.

Despite the growth opportunities in renewables, fossil fuels still dominate the global energy mix, accounting for a significant portion of the total energy consumption, with some reports estimating that over 80% of the world’s energy comes from fossil fuels.

The Ember report also revealed that fossil fuel generation increased in the United States and Europe, as both coal and gas inched up to offset lower wind, hydro, and bioenergy output.

This development is coming at a time when electricity demand has been projected to nearly double to 57,140 terawatt hours by 2050, which would require a pragmatic approach in balancing the global energy demand and supply value chain.

Oil Demand Forecast
As countries grapple with the dual challenge of addressing climate change and strengthening energy security, the fossil fuel industry continues to play a pivotal role in the global energy supply chain.

In its Oil Market Report (OMR), the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasted that the global oil demand is expected to increase by 680 kb/d in 2025 and 700 kb/d in 2026, to reach 104.4 million barrels.

Given the current energy scenario, IEA also anticipates that the global oil demand, including biofuels, may rise further to 113 million barrels by 2050, estimating that the world will need the equivalent of an additional 25 million b/d in new projects over the next decade to maintain market equilibrium.

On the other hand, the emergence of data centers for artificial intelligence (AI) is set to drive surging energy demand. AI’s power needs are growing exponentially, with industry reports projecting that the global AI energy demand could reach 68 gigawatts by 2027, while some reports estimate that data centers could account for as much as 21% of global energy demand by 2030 if the cost of delivering AI is factored in.

The training phase of AI models is electricity-intensive, and training large language models such as ChatGPT-3 requires massive amounts of electricity.

According to a report, training ChatGPT-4 is estimated to have consumed up to 50GWh. This is roughly equivalent to the annual electricity use of 5,000 U.S. households or powering San Francisco for approximately three days. The power consumption of training Chat GPT-4 was 16.5 times more than that of training Chat GPT-3.

Speaking at the 2025 ADIPEC Conference, covered by The Energy Republic, ADNOC Chairman Dr. Sultan Al Jaber called for a “balanced and inclusive” energy approach focusing on “reinforcement, not replacement policies,” and urged massive capital investment to meet growing energy demand, estimating that the energy sector needs over $4 trillion annually for grids, data centers, and supply to meet long-term energy demand.

ADNOC Chairman Dr. Sultan Al Jaber delivering a keynote address at ADIPEC 2025

Al Jaber advised industry leaders to “tune out the noise” of market volatility and “track the signal” of long-term energy demand, while staying focused on energy efficiency, capital investment, and technology.

“This transition is not about less energy; it is about more energy with fewer emissions. The planet needs more energy, full stop,” Patrick Pouyanné, Chairman and CEO, TotalEnergies, said during this year’s ADIPEC panel session titled ‘Redefining the energy major: Competing and thriving in a new energy order’. “And when we move from thinking in terms of oil and gas to thinking in terms of energy, that still means more oil and more gas, because they remain at the core of the system. But increasingly, the energy everybody is looking at now is electricity.”

Patrick Pouyanné, Chairman and CEO, TotalEnergies speaking at ADIPEC Conference 2025

In the company’s latest energy outlook, TotalEnergies reiterated that fossil fuels would remain crucial in the global energy mix until 2040. The company expects global oil demand to continue to increase until 2040.

“Fossil fuels to account for 60% of global energy demand by 2050, down from 80% today,” TotalEnergies forecasted.

TotalEnergies’ Energy Outlook 2025 presents a comprehensive analysis of the global energy system through 2050. The report shows oil demand rising nearly 5% to 108 million barrels per day in 2040 under current trends, with global consumption then dropping to 98 million bpd in 2050.

Since the signing of the 2015 Paris Agreement, TotalEnergies’ report highlighted the significant progress made on energy transition, noting that the carbon intensity of the global energy mix has declined despite higher overall energy demand.

However, TotalEnergies emphasized that the world remains in an “energy addition” phase, where overall energy demand continues to rise even as renewable generation increases.

The company’s report pointed to China’s continuous expansion in low-carbon technologies, integrated across its energy value chain, which reinforces the country’s position as a central force in the global shift toward cleaner energy.

Today, China exports solar PV modules, batteries, and electric vehicles.

At the same time, even though China leads in clean tech, it is still expanding and operating coal-fired power plants. However, the integration of newer, more efficient technologies—combined with the rapid growth of renewable energy has helped the country steadily lower the carbon intensity of its electricity system.

“The growing share of renewables in global power generation will play a central role in accelerating the energy transition,” TotalEnergies outlined in its 2025 energy outlook.

The company also noted that in many developed countries, especially the United States, the shift away from coal is being reinforced by increased reliance on natural gas–fired power plants, which are gradually replacing coal as part of the energy transition.

In his words, TotalEnergies CEO said the United States holds the position as the dominant force in traditional oil and gas, adding that China has taken the lead in clean-energy technologies.

He attributed this shift to President Trump’s administration scaling back green subsidies, the reopening of licensing for LNG facilities, the continued development of coal plants across parts of Asia, and a global slowdown in electric vehicle sales.

“China in 10 years has become the clean tech superpower, the new energy supermajor,” TotalEnergies CEO said, stressing that the country would have an 80% market share in all the technologies the world needs tomorrow.

TotalEnergies also highlighted that Europe remains at the forefront of efforts to cut emissions by steadily cleaning up its power generation mix. At the same time, the company pointed out that Europe faces significant challenges.

The company’s energy outlook underscored the need for Europe to make major investments in its electricity grids while balancing its energy industry competitiveness. It also has to address public resistance to the higher costs tied to decarbonizing energy use, a concern reflected in the slow uptake of electric vehicles and heat pumps across the continent.

In addition, TotalEnergies emphasized that improving energy access in developing countries is critical for supporting broader social and economic progress.

The company revealed that roughly 4.6 billion people still do not have sufficient energy to meet basic human development needs, including reliable healthcare and quality education.

“Ensuring affordable and adequate energy supply in these regions remains a fundamental global energy security priority.