The Surge in Gas Production and Africa’s Path to Economic Transformation (By NJ Ayuk)
By NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman, African Energy Chamber (https://EnergyChamber.org).
Natural gas will be a pivotal component of Africa’s energy future as it is uniquely poised for growth despite the move toward a surplus liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply in the global gas cycle.
As detailed in the African Energy Chamber’s 2026 Outlook Report, “The State of African Energy,” African demand for gas is forecast to rise 60% by 2050. In fact, gas is the only fossil fuel expected to expand its share of primary energy demand globally. Furthermore, as North Africa’s dominance in the sector diminishes, the report expects sub-Saharan Africa to drive this gas surge as the region holds over 70% of the continent’s remaining recoverable resources.
Export revenues and domestic use are the two avenues down which Africa will find the transformative benefits that gas offers, but actually getting there depends on successfully navigating infrastructure gaps, pricing disputes, and the transition from associated to non-associated gas.
The Next Gas Epicenter
Two-thirds of gas production on the continent takes place in North Africa with Algeria, Egypt, and Libya holding the top spots as leading producers with high gas penetration in their own power mixes. However, we expect North Africa’s share of total continental production to decrease to below 40% by 2035 as output from other regional producers accelerates. While sub-Saharan production currently accounts for the remaining third of current gross output, the region will dominate future growth.
With the 2021 launch of its “Decade of Gas,” a government initiative to develop gas resources and aid in the transition to cleaner energy, Nigeria will likely lead this expansion, as it already produces more than half of the region’s commercialized gas. Emerging producers like Mozambique, Tanzania, Senegal, Mauritania, and Angola are set to follow. Notably, Mozambique’s Coral Sul project, Senegal-Mauritania’s Greater Tortue project, and Congo LNG have all added new export streams since 2022.
Our 2026 Outlook Report also forecasts that total African gross gas demand will have climbed steadily from roughly 55 billion cubic meters (Bcm) per year in 2020 to over 90 Bcm by 2050. Residential, industrial, and other power sectors are anticipated to drive the growth.
With sub-Saharan Africa holding more than 400 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of recoverable gas resources, which amount to 70% of the continent’s total reserves, the region is poised to meet that demand.
Also, unlike North Africa’s mature, pipeline-linked markets, sub-Saharan gas is increasingly non-associated or “dry,” meaning it is not found alongside crude oil in reserves. While non-associated gas is more expensive per million British thermal unit (MMBtu), the fact that it is not cross-subsidized by oil essentially frees it from the operational and pricing constraints of oil-centric projects, making the gas available to new domestic, regional, or export pathways to monetization.
Transformative Avenues: Exports and Domestic Industrialization
As our report explains, gas development can transform host government economies through two primary channels: exports and in-country value creation.
Exports: Last year, Africa supplied 34.7 million metric tonnes (MMt) of LNG (8.5% of the global supply). Sub-Saharan volumes in 2024 reached 26.9 MMt, with 60% destined for Asia and 25% for Europe. Adding Tanzania to the export roster, the 2026 Outlook Report projects a quadrupling of the sub-Saharan supply by 2050.
Furthermore, as west and southwest African LNG producers are in proximity to both Atlantic and Indian Ocean markets, producers in these regions specifically can function as swing suppliers, taking advantage of fluctuations in European and Asian LNG spot prices or global supply disruptions.
Also, where gas export projects have domestic market obligations (DMOs), like in Nigeria, Senegal-Mauritania, Angola, and Cameroon, growth in exports grows the gas supply for domestic use. For example, Senegal has plans of achieving 3 gigawatts (GW) of gas-fired power by 2050, largely fed by DMOs from the Greater Tortue LNG project and the Yakaar-Teranga LNG project.
Domestic Monetization and Industrialization: In addition to the revenue collected from exports, gas can empower a producing nation by fueling transport, powering industry, and electrifying homes all within its borders.
Although only a few sub-Saharan countries currently have power mixes that include gas, generation from natural gas has shown a steady increase across the region over the last decade. As detailed in our report, Nigeria’s gas-fired capacity is at 12.6 GW, and installations in Ghana and Mozambique are at 2.9 GW and 1.1 GW, respectively. Tanzania, Senegal, Angola, Côte d’Ivoire, and South Africa are also home to smaller gas power plants. In countries such as Senegal and Ghana, that have coastal demand centers, floating power ships operating on natural gas are in place to satisfy demand.
What’s more, Nigeria, South Africa, Senegal, Angola, Ghana, Tanzania, and Mozambique all have stated ambitions of developing or furthering gas-to-power infrastructure. Our report also sees a coming increase in demand for gas-derived products such as fertilizers and petrochemicals, as well as for implementation in industrial applications like metals processing.
Angola’s recently approved National Gas Plan targets these sectors with a focus on curbing import reliance, while Nigeria’s push for compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles under the 2020 National Gas Expansion Program officially commenced in March 2022. These are just two examples of how sub-Saharan Africa’s gas sector is poised to deliver an economic one-two punch through exports and in-country monetization that would enable nations to cut down on imports, grow their revenues, and provide energy access to their people for decades to come.
Challenges to Realizing Africa’s Gas Potential
Africa holds both abundant gas resources and significant unrealized potential. In fact, Africa ranks second in the world behind only Russia for discovered yet undeveloped gas resources. In two examples, the Rovuma basin, off the coasts of southern Tanzania and northern Mozambique, holds 129 Tcf, and the Niger Delta basin along the Nigerian coast holds 113 Tcf, but these basins remain largely untapped.
There are numerous obstacles between Africa’s current position and the economic transformation that gas development could deliver. Our 2026 Outlook Report identifies four essential success factors that Africa must manage if it is to navigate those obstacles: upstream economics, market access and offtake, adequate infrastructure, and country risk/fiscal terms.
As international majors have been known to exit discoveries due to a lack of integration of these factors, support from governments and regulators is critical to finding alignment between them.
Upstream Economics: Currently, over 50% of sub-Saharan production is tied to associated gas, which carries very low production costs. This has contributed heavily to regional gas sector expansion as seen in Nigeria and Angola. By contrast, non-associated gas — though not constrained by oil production rates, enhanced oil recovery reinjection requirements, or oil price fluctuations — demands a competitive dollar-per-MMBtu price to justify future investment and infrastructure development.
Market Access and Offtake: To ensure transparent pricing, adequate returns, and reliable long-term demand all while maximizing domestic benefits, success with this factor will require long-term contracts with creditworthy offtakers (buyers held to specified purchase amounts through long-term agreements), predictable consumption patterns, and government-backed incentives that encourage producers to sell and consumers to buy.
Adequate Infrastructure: Linking supply hubs to demand centers requires LNG facilities and pipelines. With this factor, the “chicken-and-egg paradox” emerges: Investors who can provide the necessary infrastructure expect guaranteed demand, yet demand only grows once that infrastructure is in place. This dynamic is why governments must put in place predictable regulatory and pricing frameworks that attract investment while advancing national economic and energy priorities.
Country Risk and Fiscal Terms: To keep gas production projects attractive to investors, national governments must find the correct balance of royalties, production sharing terms, taxation, DMOs, and local content requirements. Governments must also align their export and domestic priorities to satisfy operator needs and achieve their own local supply or revenue ambitions. Maintaining overall political stability to ensure long-term investor confidence is another critical component of this success factor.
Seizing the Surplus
The 2026 Outlook frames gas as Africa’s bridge fuel: cleaner than coal or oil, versatile for power generation and industrial applications, and increasingly competitive as global prices decrease in the coming years.
Sub-Saharan Africa’s anticipated non-associated gas production surge can deliver energy security, export revenues, and new industrial jobs. Success in this effort will require a resolution of the infrastructure-demand paradox through reliable contracts, transparent pricing, and balanced fiscal policies.
If African nations can collectively support upstream scalability, midstream connectivity, and downstream certainty, gas production will not merely surge — it will transform the entire continent for the better.
“The State of African Energy: 2026 Outlook Report” is available for download. Visit https://apo-opa.co/48v4gzN to request your copy.
Distributed by APO Group on behalf of African Energy Chamber.
