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Gas to rise by over 50% by 2040 and US to become world’s largest LNG exporter


Gastech 2018, the global exhibition and conference at the forefront of the international gas, LNG and energy industries, today heard forecasts that the U.S. will become the world’s leading LNG supplier by 2028 and still be the largest natural gas producer by 2040.

The forecast was made by leading energy industry consultancy Wood Mackenzie at a press conference to launch Gastech 2019, which will be held with sister event GPEX – the global event to enhance energy transition – at Houston’s NRG Centre, September 17-19 next year.

Kristy Kramer, Wood Mackenzie’s Head of Americas Gas Research, said the shale gas revolution had resulted in the US becoming the largest gas producer in the world, comprising 23% of total global production.

“At the start of 2014, more than 50% of US gas production was from shale and today it has reached 65%. Wood Mackenzie forecasts continued production growth of 47% by 2035,” she said.

“The outlook for US natural gas is extremely promising. With an abundance of low cost gas resource and sustained demand growth, the size of the US natural gas market will greatly expand over the next 20 years. We expect the US to be the largest natural gas producer by 2040, with production increasing to almost 130 bcfd – more than 50% over today’s level.”

Optimism has returned to the global LNG market, and Wood Mackenzie recently upgraded its forecast of the LNG supply-demand gap for new projects.

“By 2035, US LNG exports are forecast to reach more than 140 mmtpa – far above that of Qatar (100 mmtpa) and Australia (80 mmtpa) as the next largest exporters,” said Kramer.

Charlie Cracknell, Portfolio Director – Gastech & GPEX presented a market overview of the forecasted global growth of natural gas and LNG. He said Gastech 2019 would play host to the entire upstream, midstream and downstream value chain. An enhanced feature for Gastech 2019 will be an increase in specialist industry zones from six to nine, with the addition of zones for ports facilities and bunkering, pipeline and FLNG and storage, transmission and distribution.

“We are in advanced discussions with a range of industry stakeholders who are supporting and helping shape the agenda and experience for Gastech2019,” he said.

Speakers at Day Three of Gastech examined the global drive towards the greater adoption of gas and LNG, and the industry’s optimism of further long-term growth.

The Gastech plenary began with a keynote address from Jean-Baptiste Dubreil, Senior Natural Gas Analyst, International Energy Agency, who spoke of the growth opportunities in the industry from the U.S., China and industry demand. This was followed by a Global Leaders’ panel featuring CEOs and board members from Enagás, Engie, Black & Veatch and Grupo Energia Bogota on the nexus between gas and renewables which explored the growth potential for gas offered by its use as a transportation fuel and posed questions about gas as a transition or destination fuel.

The afternoon’s Global Leaders’ panel featured a discussion on the transformative impact of digital technologies on the global energy industry. MAANA founder & CEO Babur Ozman, Enagás Chief Transformation Officer Anton Martinez, BHGE President & CEO of Turbomachinery and Process Solutions Rod Christie and Petrofac’s Group Head of Strategy, Jonathan Carpenter shed light on how companies could transform using new technologies.

Other themes discussed included the new demand centres for gas, the challenges in the gas sector in Spain and beyond and a range of other issues including the burgeoning trading sector, project financing, the interplay between gas and renewable energy in power generation, project development, managing emissions and project financial risk management.

Another key theme was the growth of the North American gas and LNG industry, a topic that will be a focus for Gastech 2019, in Houston – long recognised as the energy capital of the world.

The GPEX Summit began with inspiring words from Blanca Losada Martin, formerly of Naturgy and chairwoman of Futured. She emphasised the importance of changing perceptions and attitudes, and managing mistakes. Oriol Pudjoldevall, Business Development Lead for the Energy Web Foundation, which works on blockchain solutions for energy, said current networks were controlled by one trusted conductor. In future, networks would be a completely decentralised cloud where each individual knew exactly what was happening.

A panel discussion on the age of energy digitalisation followed, with Martin Daronnat, VPP Senior Operations & Delivery Manager, E.ON, Jens Brodowski, Digital Leader Renewables, Innogy SE, Kaspar Kaarleep, Co-founder and Chief Technology Officer, WePower and Arij van Berkel, Research Director, Lux research.

Charlie Cracknell, Portfolio Director – Gastech & GPEX, added: “We have been grateful to everyone who has made Gastech 2018 such an excellent event so far, including dignitaries, consortium members, exhibitors, speakers and attendees, and we are already preparing for Gastech 2019 in Houston.

“At Gastech and GPEX 2018 there has been much discussion on the global implications of the growth in the US gas industry. It’s fitting that next year we will head to the epicentre of that industry in Houston for what we anticipate will be a highly memorable and successful Gastech and GPEX 2019.”

Gastech 2019 will continue to be co-located with GPEX, 2019 the new hub for the international power and energy community to enhance energy transition.

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